Aluminium Price Forecast for Q4: LME Falls to a February Low

The aluminium price forecast for the last quarter of 2026 starts from a hard number. On 13 October, LME aluminium traded at 3,036.25 USD/t, down 0.38% on the day and the lowest level since February, according to Trading Economics.

One week earlier, alCircle reported the LME cash offer at 3,134.5 USD/t. That implies a drop of roughly 98 USD/t in six days. However, the two figures come from different sources, so the gap is an approximation.

This article explains what is pushing the base price down and what is holding it up. It also shows why the all-in cost for a buyer in Latin America or Europe does not fall at the same pace as the LME headline. It describes mechanisms and scenarios. It is not a price prediction, and it is not buying or hedging guidance.

Where the aluminium price forecast starts

Trading Economics projects a quarter-end level of around 3,104.37 USD/t. That is above the current spot. It is the output of an aggregator model, so it works as a reference point and not as a guarantee.

The curve on 7 October pointed the same way, with a small spread. The cash offer stood at 3,134.5 USD/t and the three-month offer at 3,148.5 USD/t, a gap of 14 USD/t. In other words, the market was not pricing a steep move in either direction.

Three forces behind the LME aluminium price outlook

Trading Economics cites four causes for the decline. Three of them carry most of the weight.

A strong dollar

The dollar sits near 18-month highs. Aluminium is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar makes the metal more expensive for buyers who hold other currencies. Demand outside the dollar zone tends to soften as a result.

Gulf smelters returning faster than expected

The reference case is EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter. According to Aluminium International Today, EGA had restarted 315 of 1,262 cells, or 25%, after the damage of 28 March 2026. Full production is expected in the first quarter of 2027. The alumina refinery was at about 50%, and the recycling plant was due to reach full output towards the end of Q4 2026.

That report is dated 26 August, so it is context and not a current reading. Still, it shows how much supply is coming back in stages.

Weak demand in China and new capacity in Indonesia

The same Trading Economics note points to soft Chinese demand and expanding capacity in Indonesia. Both add to the supply side of the balance.

What the SHFE aluminium price says about China

The weakness is not limited to London. According to Shanghai Metals Market, the SHFE aluminium 2611 contract closed at 23,465 yuan/t on 12 October, up 0.36%. The market is consolidating near its lows.

SMM lists the strong dollar, peak-season demand below expectations and cautious purchases by end users. It also notes a build-up of alumina inventory. The alumina 2701 contract closed at 2,689 yuan/t. Cheaper alumina eases costs for smelters, and therefore it offers less cost support to the metal price.

Ingot inventories fell by 35,000 t on Monday, so the picture is not one-directional. In addition, an SMM summary reports that China’s aluminium exports reached a three-month high in September, up 25.9% year on year. That figure has not yet been checked against Chinese customs data. If it holds, more Chinese metal looking for a market adds pressure on import markets.

What limits the downside: inventories and restarts

LME stocks were unchanged at 240,375 t on 7 October, and cancelled warrants rose 10.95% to 15,200 t, per alCircle. Stocks remain low against recent history. For that reason, the physical market has a cushion that a pure demand story would not explain.

The scenarios are open on both sides.

• If Gulf restarts slip, the supply pressure that produced the current low eases and the floor may not hold.
• If Chinese exports keep rising while end-user demand stays cautious, the pressure persists.
• If the dollar retreats from its highs, the currency effect on demand fades.

No single scenario is established. The data supports a range of outcomes, not a point estimate.

Why your all-in price falls slower than LME

The LME headline is only one layer of what a buyer pays. The other large layer is the regional premium. Discovery Alert puts the duty-paid Rotterdam premium at about 533 USD/t in late September, against 275 to 300 USD/t at the end of 2025. That is close to double.

For example, add 533 USD/t to the 3,036.25 USD/t LME level. The result is about 3,569 USD/t, and the premium makes up around 15% of it. The two inputs come from different dates, so this is an illustration of proportions and not a quotation. By comparison, the weekly LME move of roughly 98 USD/t is about 3% of the early-October level.

The same source puts the net CBAM cost at about 2.8 EUR/t in 2026, because of a free-allocation factor, with ETS at 82.32 EUR/tCO2 on 5 October. The carbon charge itself is small today. Consequently, the premium is the larger part of the bill. This premium figure comes from a secondary source and should be confirmed against Fastmarkets or Argus before it is used in a negotiation.

How to read a Q4 quotation

This is a method for reading numbers, not a view on direction. When a quotation arrives, split it into its parts:

1. The LME reference used and the date it was taken.
2. The regional premium and the source that sets it.
3. Freight, insurance and the duty applied at destination.
4. The validity period of the offer.

A headline fall in LME shows up in only the first line. The other lines move on their own logic, so each needs its own explanation.

Allinx, the aluminium and metallurgical materials trader of the BiiSmart Group, works on exactly that breakdown. It quotes material delivered at destination, analyses origin and the applicable tariff, and sources with the group’s own logistics. Teams that want a quotation built this way can write through the contact page. More on the product range is available under other materials, and earlier market notes are in Insights. You can also read about the group behind Allinx. No quotation implies a view on future prices.